Damn this match is hella interesting, this is a rematch as these teams already played against each other in the group stage and the result was quite surprising as dignitas beat them 2-0, they stomped ENVYUS 16-5 on Inferno and 16-9 on Cobble, the final result wouldn’t surprise me that much since dignitas is a great team and they already beat teams like nV before, however, they barely beat FlipSid3 in the second match of their group and then struggled against CLG in the semi final… Not sure what’s the reason for that, but I think it was either ENVYUS playing bad or dignitas analysed them and prepared counter strats specifically for this match. ENVYUS played way better in the following matches as they beat Astralis, CLG twice and 2-0’d Cloud9. Both teams looked great so far and it makes this match very hard to call, but in the end I think that ENVYUS will take this, this is a best of five series and they have a decent advantage knowing their map pool is simply better.
My odds for this match: EnVyUs 65:35 Dignitas
So obviously the favorites to take this final, and for a good reason obviously. Going into this Envy have a ton of more experience in these sort of situations, comparing to Dignitas, not to even mention that this is a BO5, more places for chokes! Jokes aside, skill wise and as I said experience wise Envyus definitely should be favored here, however I would not get too comfortable here. Envyus has not been impressing me this event honestly, they just barely scraped a win vs Astralis where Kenny had to have quite an insane 3 map series, and it very easily could’ve ended 2-0 for Astralis, however credit where it is due of course. For me Apex has been really quiet this event especially, they always say that with Apex, if he is on fire you win all your matches, if he is quiet however, as the entry fragger, your team struggles a whole bunch so he is a very important person to note here, for me he is the most inconsistent out of the Envy guys, and I mean a wild Shoxie might be knocking on the door soon, but of course what do I know. I feel like this is the type of scenario that Envy should really be winning, this is an easier final than what they probably prepared for, giving that G2 and Astralis were included, so that might off put them somewhat as they might not have necessarily prepared for Dignitas, but we will never know. Of course Dignitas beat Envyus 2-0 earlier in the event, a very dominating 2-0 too which I am sure caught many of us off guard, however I do not want to take too much out of that, Envy played very poorly, too poor for their standard and I just think they underestimated Dignitas. Eitherway, putting this all together, I do feel that as long as Envy land their shots today and play smart, they should be favored here and should be winning matchups like this.
So kinda the dark horse of the event has made the finals, was not expecting to see Dignitas here however hey, it has happened. As I said previously, ever since Aizy and Pimp left the squad, I got quite worried for them and didn’t necessarily see much out of them, however they’ve made an international final for the first time I believe, so that is really good progress for these guys, they are playing well and it’s good to see them hitting the scene hard. I still think that consistency is a very big problem for these guys, K0nfig has been stellar so far this event, however can he do it in a BO5 versus Envyus? I just don’t think so, the rest of the team has to step up, for me especially Kjaerbye and Rubino have to show what they are made of, those two can be really good, however they are so streaky in their performances, while Kjaerbye kinda just sticks to the middle of the table when he is having a bad game, Rubinho tends to hit the deck hard and just go extremely quiet in games, and we’ve seen it happen this LAN already, and he can not let that happen here if he wants to have any chance of taking this, everyone has to be on point and not only K0nfig. Eitherway, obviously Dignitas are the underdogs going into this game, however they’ve had a good LAN so far, of course like I said they beat CLG yesterday, 16:10 and 16:14, and honestly they were the better team, the scores lie a bit I feel, then they demolished Envyus 2-0 the other day, which was really impressive for me, was not expecting it at all. I do think that in a BO5 this will be harder for Dignitas, they are all young guys, they will have to keep their composure and just be on a very high level for such a long time if they want to win this, while Envy know they have wiggle room, they are the more experienced team and the better team, so the pressure is definitely on Dig here.
In situations like this I try to imagine reading ”Dignitas defeat Envy in BO5 to take final” and it just does not settle in my head, however time will tell. I do favor Envyus here obviously, they are individually the better team here, as well as just the better team overall, they are a lot more experienced which in LAN finals, especially if it’s your first one, that is a whole bunch of pressure and I am unsure if the Dignitas guys can keep their high performance levels consistently throughout this BO5. K0nfig has been instrumental to Dignitas’ success so far this event, and if Envy can shut him down, I just don’t really see who else can step up, Kjaerbye is too inconsistent by himself, so it is a tough scenario for Dignitas, however they did do the 2-0 a few days ago, so I am not counting them out by any means. This is a 65-35 in favor of Envyus for me, and I expect them to take it, however not betting my house on it.
Going to play the odds here given that it’s such a high risk game. As long as Envy is below 72%, I will drop 5% on them, otherwise I will go 2-3% on Dignitas if they are above it. Really high risk game so go for it with care. Envy should be winning, but you never know.
My odds = 65-35 Envy
My risk = High
My bet = 5% Envy if under 72%, otherwise 2-3% Dig
My advice = Same as my bet
My odds for this match: EnVyUs 65:35 Dignitas
The final of Game Show Global, winner goes home with $80,000 and the loser goes home with $50,000, that’s an insane prizepool if you ask me. Dignitas coming this far was far from expected, everyone expected a final like Astralis vs nV or G2, instead, Dignitas are there with so far a really impressive performance with dropping 0 maps against FlipSid3, nV and CLG yesterday, that is hella impressive. nV on the other hand always dropped a map in a BO3, 2x 2:1 against CLG and a 2:1 against Astralis (all these map losses were on Overpass!). The match against Astralis never felt really close to be honest, on Cache nV did look somewhat sloppy on their T side and usually stronger side but yesterday they showed us how good their CT side can be on Cache, Overpass was an expected loss but stomping Astralis like that on Mirage, is impressive. There were 7:0 ahead on T side at one point, they sadly did choke and make it 8:7 but after that Astralis only picked up 1 map and nV ran away with it, 16:8. A really impressive series by nV and it felt like they were back, especially kennys really showed us why he used to be top 1 awper in the world, a really sick performance.
The final here will be a BO5, and there’s a simple thing about it; a BO5 favours nV quite a bit. nV did lose the BO3 against Dignitas but the main point here was that nV never showed up, that was by far their worst match and didn’t play good at all. All players were lacking quality and couldn’t hit their shots, like I said, this is a BO5 so nV are allowed to drop a map or two maps now and still win the series, this definitely favours nV as Dignitas are known for choking, this is a final against nV and trust me, there will be a lot of pressure on Dignitas. The maps are pretty straight forward, nV will ban Overpass and Dignitas will ban Dust2 just like the BO3 earlier this tournament, after that I can see nV picking Mirage, Dignitas picking Cobblestone and nV picking Train. At this point, I can already said that it COULD be 3:0 to nV when they play like they did against Astralis and i’m sure they will. I am expecting nV to win here, the order of the mapveto will really decide the scoreline but not the winner, the winner should be nV. The map Dignitas CAN upset on is Cobblestone, all of the remaining 4 maps feel like a straight nV win. I’m either expecting 3:0 or 3:1 to nV here, Dignitas can obviously upset but that really depends on nV. Which nV will show up? The nV who played against Dignitas earlier and lost 2:0 or the nV who beat Astralis yesterday?
Due to that last question, I recommend you guys to not go too big, nV can turn into complete bots and lose the series against Dignitas. As of right now I am recommending a low / medium bet on nV of around 8% of your inventory. Now, let’s just enjoy a really fun BO5 and hope the best team wins.
My odds for this match: EnVyUs 65:35 Dignitas
The boys of dig finally showing people what they are made of and they have done really well to reach this far, but I thought Envy would win the whole thing and I’m sticking to this now. This is a BO5 and it makes it harder to pick the right maps. I expect Overpass to be removed from Envy if they are smart, and dig removing D2 again, so now we need to break down the maps.
I think Cobble favours Dig, it is their best map and they have looked really strong on it. They did struggle in parts yesterday but overall it is a really good map for them. Cache is a map I would favour Envy on. Their playstyle fits it perfectly, they like to take aim duels and it is the best map to do it on. Inferno is another map, although losing poorly the first time, that I would still favour Envy on. They are historically good on this map, with their force buys winning them many important games.
Mirage and Train I would again favour Envy, and this is the main problem for Dignitas. They are a good side on both these maps, but Envy have already shown in the past just how good they are, beating Dignitas convincingly many times. So looking at the map pool, I would only say one map favours Dignitas, and in a BO5, this is obviously the reason for the low odds on the Dig side.
So in conclusion, I favour Envy for this game heavily, and would suggest a MED bet on them. I do feel that if the Envy of a few days comes out, then this game could be a really close affair, but I hope the Envy they have shown as the tournament went on comes out, and they take this game 3-1 as I predict they will.
My odds for this match: EnVyUs 70:30 Dignitas
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