Stats for the Astralis and CLG as they've appeared on Tipify
Winner of this match will be on the 3rd place and bring home $30,000, loser will get $20,000 so that’s not too bad either. Astralis lost to nV which wasn’t too surprising (imo). Astralis always have problems with nV and it continues, our underdog bet worked out and we won. Astralis did get 9:6 up on CT side of Cache but couldn’t get any T rounds after that, nV really locked it out well. Overpass went in favour of Astralis as expected although they were 12:6 behind but we all know nV’s CT side on Overpass is literally terrible, so that was easy for Astralis. 3rd map Mirage was far from close, nV came ahead 7-0 on T side but Astralis did manage to make a nice comeback to a doable half, 7:8. Sadly, Astralis only managed to win 1 T round and lose the 3rd map 16:8 after once again a really good CT half by nV. Astralis didn’t look too good but surely not too bad either, but sadly for them, nV showed up, and once that happens .. then it’s done. CLG on the other hand had nothing to bring against Dignitas as expected. Sure, they did upset G2 but Dignitas was simply a bridge too far, they lost 2:0 on Overpass and Cobblestone.
All in all, both teams are extremely disappointed by their performance but the outcome was somewhat expected. I don’t really think Astralis will have much trouble beating CLG here. All Astralis have to do is ban Cobblestone, all the remaining 6 maps favour them quite a bit, Dust2 might be somewhat close but I expect Astralis to win that one as well. Should be a 2:0 to Astralis unless jdm shows up on Dust2, then we might see CLG picking up a map but surely not two. Again, 2:0 or worst case scenario 2:1 to Astralis.
Medium on Astralis, 10% of your inventory when the odds stay below 85%. If they go over 85%, make sure to skip.
EDIT: Odds + bet
My odds for this match: Astralis 80:20 CLG
So this is a matchup that Astralis should really be winning, going into this they are quite the favorites to say the least. Obviously this game is for 3rd place, difference between 4th and 3rd is 10,000$, and I mean now that Astralis basically is owned by the players, that 10k is basically 2k extra per player, which is not too shabby at all and should give them a bit more drive to get the victory here, as well as that it is obviously just a better feeling to finish top 3 rather than outside of it. We haven’t sen much of Astralis this tournament, but when we did see them, I was not necessarily impressed. Obviously they demolished Method, struggled, and I think should’ve lost to G2 but G2 choked, and then yesterday they played Envy, I want to concentrate on that a bit more. It was obviously a close game, excluding the 3rd map which Envy just ran away with, however I was really surprised how much damage KennyS was basically able to inflict by himself, and I feel like he is the reason that Envy came out on top there, instead of Astralis. I do feel like in those first two maps Astralis played quite well, however they had to take that series 2-0 clearly, as Mirage was no match for them there. I just feel as if as long as Astralis take this seriously, they are superior in pretty much every way over CLG here, and I just hope that we do not see a bit of classical Astralis who do not really care, and that causes a poor performance, however they are professionals so I am expecting a good performance from them. As long as these guys are hitting their shots, they should have this one in the bag.
So obviously CLG has played a whole bunch more matches than Astralis for this event, and I do feel like they will be perhaps a bit more hungry to achieve the top 3 here, more so than Astralis since they are so used to top 3 finish and what not, and it’s pretty much a common thing for them, while for CLG the chance to finish top 3 in an international LAN does not come around too often, so I do think they will be highly motivated. Honestly, one player that really stood out for me for CLG this whole tournament is the new guy, Fugly. I keep putting the focus on Tarik and JDM to perform for CLG for them to get anything going, and while on many of the maps they have, especially JDM with the AWP comes to mind, Fugly has been solid for CLG and one of the reasons they have put up some of these really good map wins that they have under their belt – Great performance by the guy and I just hope he keeps improving. So CLG beat G2 2-1 yesterday, however I feel like that could have went a completely different direction, I mean a 2-0 G2 however at 15:14, G2 lost a 1v3 vs a Hazed with a five seven, which pulled the game 16:14, and G2 were just on a momentum train and stuff, I do think they would’ve won the overtime, however credit where it is due and CLG took the series, their CT looked quite shaky on Cobble, however they managed to close it out and we did not see a classical CLG choke. Then obviously they lost 2-0 to Dignitas, 16:10 and 16:14, unlucky however Dignitas for me was the better team, so that is deserved. Overall I definitely do not want to count CLG out here, I do not think they should be winning matches like this on the regular, however if they can catch a demotivated, careless Astralis, they’ve got a really decent shout here. The key players will have to be on point for CLG however, and it is not going to be easy, however I would not completely count them out here.
So obviously a game that Astralis should be winning, especially since it is a BO3. However to me Astralis stands out to be that kind of a team that does not always care, and I feel as if CLG will want this 3rd place finish a whole bunch more than Astralis, so if they can catch Astralis off guard and just play well themselves, perhaaaps, very slight chance they can get something done here, however only time will tell. Going to favor Astralis here obviously, 28-72 or so for Astralis sounds about right. As long as Astralis take this serious, they should have it in the bag honestly, however I am not willing to bet my house on that, so I am just playing it safe here.
Going to play the odds here, I give it 72-28 in favor of Astralis, so if Astralis is below 80%, I will go 10% on them, however if they are above it, I’ll 1-2% on CLG here in the hopes of a unlikely, but possible upset. It is a medium risk game for Astralis, so medium bets only please.
My odds = 72-28 Astralis
My risk = Medium
My bet = 10% Astralis if under 80%, otherwise 1-2% CLG
My advice = Same as my bet
My odds for this match: Astralis 72:28 CLG
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