I am really surprised with how those teams performed yesterday, was expecting much more from mousesports and their match against LDLC White was very disappointing, mousesports played a flawless Counter Strike right before this tournament, they had no issues beating teams like Gamers2 (ex-Titan) and few weaker teams, mousesports looks great ever since their roster change in which they replaced gob b with Spiidi.
Different story with E-Frag as they looked really bad in the recent weeks, but their yesterdays match against Alternate Attax was very one sided, E-Frag beat them very easily on both maps. E-Frag is a great team and they have been getting insane results few months back, but it seems like that dream3r/pNshr situation made them play worse, they had to practice with pNshr for Valve sponsored events and then with dream3r for other tournaments.
I pick mousesports to win this match and I feel confident with my bet on them, however, if they will play like they did against LDLC White, I could see E-Frag pulling off an upset here.
My odds for this match: mousesports 60:40 E-frag.net
So obviously we saw Mouz struggle quite a bit yesterday versus LDLCWhite, honestly saw something like that happening with Mouz. Mouz are quite an inconsistent team, however when they are on fire, honestly they are in strong contention to be the best tier 2 team out there, Niko, Nex and ChrisJ are instrumental to this teams success, however unfortunately it is rare that we see this trio firing on all cylinders at the same time, and that just makes the team quite a bit…uneven. Mouz is one of those teams where their low is like really low, but their highs are really high too, so betting on them is obviously a difficult task, especially as underdogs since they are so unpredictable. I do feel like Mouz are the favorites to win this LAN, and they really should be winning but time will tell. Obviously my favorites going into this, Mouz are the stronger team here in every aspect, however they really need to be showing it here, and if a repeat performance happens today, things will not go too well. Teams on LAN are very known to have a poor day, then come back and just flick a switch, so I am not concentrating too heavily on the LDLC game.
E-Frag much like Mouz, although more so are also very inconsistent as a team. Obviously E-Frag is a bit worse than Mouz, however do not count them out here. E-Frag when on fire, is a really deadly force to be reckoned with, they have a lot of individual skill, and have been together for a long time now. Dreamer is making a return this LAN, it’s an event he can participate of course and that is a huge plus to them. To me he is their best player, and he is really influential to this team. on E-Frag pretty much anyone can go off at any time, others more than others, however the whole team, skillwise at least is quite high up there. E-Frag to me has been kinda falling off from when we first kinda saw them, they had a really high rise, and don’t get me wrong they are still a decent tier 2 team, however their inconsistencies, especially versus really weak teams has gotten to me. Not much to say really, they all will need to be on fire and not making those stupid mistakes that they so often tend to do, and the forcebuys will need to go too.
Overall I do feel as if Mouz should be taking this, however of course they were shaky yesterday, so I am not riding the highest of confidence right now. Teams have tendencies of having a bad day at LAN, taking a days rest, returning and just flicking a switch, and with a team like Mouz, that is most definitely what can happen since they rely on their key players so much. To me this will pretty much be who shows up really, if we see the Mouz we saw yesterday, I don’t doubt E-Frag will take this, however Mouz is capable of great, great things so they really should be taking this. 65-35 in favor of Mouz here for me. High risk game.
Going to play the odds here. As long as Mouz is below 72%, I will drop 5% on them, otherwise 2-3% on E-Frag here. Really high risk game so low bets only.
My odds = 65-35 Mouz
My risk = High
My bet = 5% Mouz if under 72%, otherwise 2-3% E-Frag
My advice = Same as my bet
My odds for this match: mousesports 65:35 E-frag.net
Think mouz will show up today and show their level in a game that could be really close. E-frag are not a bad side, they have bubble who has been on fire lately, and dream3r back as this is not a valve event, which will really help their level.
Mouz looked shaky yesterday, but got the job done, and they have a whole load of players who can show up when they need them too. This is the reason they managed to take down LDLC, in those big rounds, their experience shone through. I feel like E-frag lack players like this and this could be the key in deciding this outcome. On top of that, some of the maps E-frag likes are ones that mouz also plays.
I would suggest going LOW on mouz here although the odds are not the best. If the odds on them move above 70%, I would honestly recommend to either SKIP this or go LOW on E-frag to purely play the odds. This is a high risk bet and could easily go to 3 maps. Picking mouz to take at least 1 map on fanobet should be a fairly safe bet.
My odds for this match: mousesports 65:35 E-frag.net
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