We all saw how Fnatic performed so far at Katowice, not necessarily the strongest Fnatic we’ve seen but they did manage to get through. They had an easy match against Navi on Dust2 but did lose to LG, the matches against Nip and Mousesports were extremely close, Fnatic probably should have lost against Nip but somehow managed to win. The match against Mousesports got close for no reason, Fnatic should have won that way before OT.
VirtusPro have been rather lucky, the win against nV was nice but the win over FaZe was pure luck. Other than that, they lost to Astralis and Tempo Storm in two far from close BO1’s, VP are still not out of their slump and I don’t expect them to get out of it either.
The most recent H2H match was a BO1 for ESL Pro League, these were two pretty easy wins in favour of Fnatic. Fnatic overall are a team who hate playing BO1’s, they are extremely good in BO3’s but tend to get upset in BO1’s. If we look at the map-odds, the only map VP have somewhat a chance on is Mirage and that’s Fnatics insta-ban. The maps favour Fnatic too much so I’m not sure if VP are even able to pick one up. The only thing that scares me here is the crowd, usually VP really turns up and gets hyped when they have the crowd on their sides. We saw it at Katowice last year, it really affected their gameplay. Even though they have the crowd behind them, their slump is just too big right now, they should not be able to beat Fnatic in a BO3. Feeling a fairly easy win for Fnatic here, 2-0 worst case scenario 2-1.
My odds for this match: Fnatic 75:25 VP
They usually say that all tier 1 vs tier 1 matches are 60-40 at max, however given the current cirumstances, I disagree with that here. VP right now don’t even look like a tier 1 team, far, far away from it to say the least. The VP guys have been in a massive slump as of recent, and it seems like they have brought it into this event too, while they are getting the wins here and there, the way they are getting them is not convincing at all and it’s more them getting fortunate with their opponents being really off form, that will not be happening against Fnatic. VP has been bootcamping for this event, and honestly eh, I don’t even know, I have such lack of confidence in them right now. This event is in Katowice, Poland so the home crowd advantage is going to be in favor of Virtus Pro here of course, however no idea how much that will mean for them here. Honestly, no point going on and going on here, I will just sum it all up for you:
Don’t see Fnatic losing this BO3, don’t even really see them dropping a map given how VP are playing, however with these odds, at 15%, the best thing you can do is skip/ICB VP. I will just ICB on VP here most likely if they stay below 20%, otherwise just skip. A good idea would be to bet on Fanobet for VP to win at least one map here, if the odds are high that is and a really low bet, however not feeling it. Just really low on confidence with VP.
ICB VP if they are under 20%, otherwise just skip this. If the odds somehow, magically get good, like 25+% for VP, you can go 7% on Fnatic, doubt it will happen.
My odds = 70-30 Fnatic
My risk = High
My bet = ICB VP if under 20%, otherwise skip. Don’t see odds getting good however if they do, 7% Fnatic.
My advice = Same as my bet
My odds for this match: Fnatic 70:30 VP
Fnatic yet to lose a LAN they have attended, and they always seem to improve as it goes leads me to believe they should be heavily favoured in this match here. VP don’t really deserve to be in this position, and they have to thank a ninja defuse to sway the game for them against FaZe as the reason for it. This is not good for them as a side, and they will need to step it up an amazing amount if they are to take down a side like fnatic. In their other games, VP struggled to be honest, they were beaten convincingly by Tstorm and Astralis, and overcome JUST a really poor Envy side that even E-frag managed to beat.
Overall I see this game only going one way, I am a little worried if the home crowd hypes up VP, but to me this is where their run stops, and I expect fnatic to take this quite comfortably. MED on fnatic, or SKIP. If you are feeling the upset, then you could get away with an ICB on VP.
My odds for this match: Fnatic 70:30 VP
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