Stats for the Luminosity and Conquest as they've appeared on Tipify
A list of recent matches this team has played, green indicates a win and red a loss. Blue is a draw/cancelled
Second match for LG on train here so I shall take what I wrote in the other prediction : Looking at LG, their results are still some what convincing. They beat CLG 16-1, beat Method and Conquest, but then lost to 3sUP and GA. It is a bit like their performance on Overpass, some good, and some pretty bad results.
Looking at Conquest on the map, they beat Method, stomped Liquid, and lost closely to CLG and LG. The main reason for their strength on this map is their riflers. NAF, ryx, Rush are very strong at holding A, and then they put their weakest player, daps, on B, with ShahZam supporting him from connector, with the whole team playing re-take. This means all daps really needs to do, is stay alive, and if possible kill one as they come into the site. If you go outside, you are going into 3 of the strongest players in NA.
The real odds for this game for me, are 60-40, and depending on how LG do against c9, will determine whether this is a good bet or not. If LG wins, it will make for a perfect underdog bet on Conquest. If they lose, then it might be more advisable to skip this. LG only beat Conquest 16-14 on the same map last time, and if Conquest stay around 35%, it would make for a good bet. If they move to 40, or above, just SKIP this one.
My odds for this match: Luminosity 60:40 Conquest
Luminosity obviously have had the better results against top European teams, but their performances have gone noticeably down lately. Some people blame it on Luminosity playing in North America, and to those people I say that I would try to see your point of view, but I can’t seem to get my head that far up my ass. Playing worse teams has no affect on how good you are, as Luminosity have been quite active in going to LANs against good teams lately. However, their results have gone down. They just played Complexity on Overpass where they lost 5-16, starting T side. Most matches they’ve been winning, but they don’t look like they’re in the same form as how they’ve been in the past. They recently played Conquest in a BO3, and won 2-1. However, every map was very close. This could have easily gone Conquest’s way. Even before that BO3 they faced Conquest at the IBP invitational, and won 2-1. Again, it was very close. Two of the maps went into double overtime and the last one ended 16-14. Finally, Luminosity played Conquest in a CEVO match a few days ago and won 2-0. Again, it was close.
Conquest have a good lineup with quality players from NA, and they’ve been doing decently well lately. They even played Liquid recently and won 16-6 on Train. However most of their wins have been against teams that aren’t quite on Luminosity’s level, and they might have a tougher time against them.
As for the map being Train I feel like it favors Conquest. The Luminosity team doesn’t play Train very often, and their results haven’t been the best on it. For instance in the past month they’ve had more losses than wins on this map, like a loss to GA and a loss to 3sUP. These teams faced each other once on this map, and it ended up 16-14 in favor of Luminosity. Conquest’s Train has been pretty good. They recently beat Liquid 16-6 on it, and their only losses have been 14-16s against CLG and LG.
This is a pure 50-50 match, and a low bet on whoever has the better odds makes sense. Both teams have had pretty good results in the past, and each time they’ve played each other it’s been very close. Good luck!
My odds for this match: Luminosity 50:50 Conquest
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