Stats for the WinterFox and Luminosity as they've appeared on Tipify
Luminosity: So obviously one of the powerhouses of NA CSGO, however LG is not a team that impresses me overly. Obviously these guys are rather good don’t get me wrong, however they can be so god damn inconsistent at times, and lose to teams they really should be beating, especially online NA matches. They often rely on individual talents in their players, especially Coldzera and Fallen as of late to carry them throughout games, and if those two are having a bad game, the team can often struggle. They recently got demolished by Cloud9 and Complexity, and while the Cloud9 result can be somewhat justified, the Complexity one definitely sets me away a bit, since LG should be winning those.
WinterFox: Winterfox definitely are not as weak as some people portray them to be I believe. They to me come across as a somewhat inconsistent team since they don’t have many fraggers on the team, however they as a team have a lot of experience, and their mental side of the game really should not be a problem. Every person in that team has tons of experience, however in the fragging department, the only players that really make a difference in that team are Pyth and Anger, and even so, not consistently. That put aside, their recent results have been in complete shambles, losing to everything and everybody in their path, which is not comforting going into this matchup.
Conclusion: So right now the odds stand at 90-10 in favor of LG, which I definitely disagree with, in my opinion this should be more along the lines of 75-25 in favor of LG, given that it’s a BO2. I was considering max betting on this, however I do not think this is a safe match, of course you expect LG to take at least one map here, however LG is not my ‘go to’ safe team, not by any mile, especially given some of their previous NA results. LG should probably end up taking this 2-0, however my bet and advice here is to simply skip the match. The odds are too bad for anything but a max on LG, and I don’t see this as a safe enough match for those odds. If somebody for some reason is holding you hostage and forcing a bet, for some reason, I’d ICB on Winterfox.
My odds for this match: WinterFox 25%:75% Luminosity
I’ve studied the twitters of the players from Winterfox, and there is nothing to say any of the guys who were stuck in Europe, are now back in the US, which just makes an already difficult game, even harder.
LG have looked a bit up and down lately, I thought they would show better performances against coL and c9 and was a bit disappointed in them. I would still say they are a top 3 NA side, and should be able to take at least 1 map off WF.
With this being a bo2, betting on the underdog makes less sense, as they need to win both maps. Beating a better team than yours, in both maps, when you have 3 guys with 150+ ping is incredibly unlikely. Bet on LG if you feel like you have too, but I will probably skip this one.
My odds for this match: WinterFox 25:75 Luminosity
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