I find this game probably the hardest to predict. Envy are arguably the best team in the world right now, but their play style and lack of playing hours recently makes me nervous. Looking at their players steam profiles :
Kio has 54 hours played, last played CS November 22nd.
NBK 37.6 hours played, last played CS on November 24th
Happy 98.6 hours played, last played CS November 23rd
kennyS 29.2 hours played, last played CS November 24th
apEX 88.9 hours played, last played CS November 25th
Looking at the hours we can see that they as a team have not even played for at least 4 days. A couple of the players have high hours, but Happy for example, didn’t play CS for a while, and the majority of his hours are on DOTA.
It is hard to look at the same for NIP as all members except allu have private profiles. He has 89.4 hours and last played CS on November 25th, which unfortunately does not tell us much.
Moving on to past results, NIP have won the majority of their last match ups, (4 out of the last 5) but some of the games had little meaning. The last couple in ESL and Faceit didn’t really affect either side, as both of them did not have THAT much to play for. Both qualified through Faceit, and Nip were already out in ESL. Because of this you shouldn’t read too much into this.
Looking at the maps, I expect the map we end up on will most likely be Cache, with Mirage and Inferno possibilities as well. I feel that Cache favours Envy around 60-40, due to their overall aggressive play style working better for them on this map. Happy coming from squeaky is impressive. This is a map where teams can put up big numbers on both T and CT sides, and expect to see large amounts of force buys, and tec-9 rushes on A. It is not the best map for allu, and he will have a hard time competing with kennyS on this map.
For me, the odds for this game are 60-40 for Envy, and the odds on CSGL right now are 63-37. These odds you could perhaps JUST about get by with a bet on Envy, but realistically I would hope the odds to drop a bit for me to bet on them. As I have to mark a team to bet on for this game, right now I will bet on Envy, but this is with an asterix, as if the odds move too much, with the map being a close one, and the playing hours on nV, it might well not be worth betting on them anymore. I will have a look at the odds tomorrow and update accordingly.
My odds for this match: EnVyUs 60:40 NiP
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