Stats for the Astralis and Fnatic as they've appeared on Tipify
A list of recent matches this team has played, green indicates a win and red a loss. Blue is a draw/cancelled
It’s not the semi-finals meaning that Astralis will win! Ok I will stop, you probably have heard that joke about 20 times before this one, and it’s not even funny. This is going to be a close battle, I feel like Fnatic have obviously shown weaknesses so far in the tournament, losing to Liquid and looking somewhat shaky to FaZe on Mirage. Astralis not the greatest either however, so kinda evens out. I do think that Astralis can not be counted out here, sure Fnatic are favored here and most of the time should be coming out on top, however if the Astralis’ guys are landing their shots and no crazy miracles on the side of Fnatic, as it always happens, it should be a fight right down to the wire. Olof is having a wrist issue too so that is something working in the favor of Astralis. Overall 60-40 in favor of Fnatic. Low bets only here
3% Fnatic if below 65%, otherwise 3% Astralis
My odds = 60-40 FNC
My risk = High
My bet = 3% Fnatic if below 65%, otherwise 3% Astralis
My advice = Same as my bet
My odds for this match: Astralis 40:60 Fnatic
This is actually a really scary one. Astralis have been playing really good at this major so far but Astralis are known for playing extremely well in the group stages, now they’re gonna have to play in the quarter finals and usually this is the point where Astralis’s ”choke” moments start. They tend to lose BO3’s just because they can’t close out games, this is a weakness of Astralis and happens way too often and this is the reason why Astralis are top4 max IMO.
Fnatic actually look ”bad” for the first time this year but the funny thing is, even when Fnatic look ”bad” they can still be a top1 team. Fnatics biggest problem right now is Olofmeister, this team is pretty much built around him and when Olofmeister doesn’t perform, then just struggle overall even though they have a lot of fragging power, we saw it against Liquid, Olofmeister was nowhere and the remaining 4 players couldn’t do it, Fnatic really need Olofmeister. Obviously Olof is having wrist problems and this has been mentioned before the major, I’m not sure how much this actually affects his gameplay but against Liquid it made them lose the game, against FaZe it looked like he was back as he was topfragging on Cobblestone (his favorite map). Fnatic need Olof to perform if they want to win this major.
This is a scary one because Fnatic are actually struggling with the way Olof is playing, Astralis can take advantage of this because it actually looks like Fnatic does have a weakness and it’s all on Astralis to find it. Overall I think that Olof will play like he did against FaZe and probably just demolish Astralis just like every single H2H match has gone so far, I expect a 2-1 to Fnatic here as either Mirage or Dust2 will be played and so far these maps seem to be Fnatics weaker maps. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised when Astralis runs away with this 2-1 because again; It’s all going to depend on Olof. For now, I’d suggest a low bet on Fnatic depending on the odds.
My odds for this match: Astralis 30:70 Fnatic
I believe that fnatic will most likely take this game, with a few background things going on affecting both sides. Firstly, olof has a really bad wrist, which would explain his poor performance so far. Having the best player in the world not playing well, is obviously a huge deal. Astralis, also tweeted that they caught the flu and have all been resting yesterday, trying to get better for today. This will obviously lower their overall performance and they have to focus that little bit harder to avoid thinking about how they are feeling.
Looking at the game itself, this should be a close one. Astralis used to a long time ago be the problem team for fnatic, and they always gave them close games. They have again done this recently, but fnatic always seem to find a way to win, and I believe they will again today. The problem is the odds make betting on fnatic really risky, but at the same time, I just feel like they will step it up another level and win today.
The smartest bet is astralis at these odds, but in my gut I just see fnatic winning this. I would personally probably go at fnatic even at these odds, but if you want to play the odds, then go ICB/LOW on astralis in case olof is having another day with an issue with his wrist. Otherwise, go LOW, but around 7% on fnatic.
Edit : with the odds now almost 80% for fnatic, that is far too high even if I do expect them to take it, LOW/ICB on astralis at these odds.
My odds for this match: Astralis 35:65 Fnatic
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