Fnatic vs. Na’Vi at IEM

Maps

• Dust2: 65-35 Fnatic
• Inferno: 70-30 Fnatic
• Mirage: 65-35 Navi
• Cache: 80-20 Fnatic
• Train: 50-50
• Overpass: 55-45 Fnatic
• Cobblestone: 55-45 Fnatic

Thoughts

Historically we all know the H2H matches between Navi and Fnatic. Navi pretty much never beat Fnatic on lan when it really matters, no matter the map, Fnatic always manage to beat Navi. Even when Navi are on their peak and just dominating against every single team, Fnatic still come out on top. This is pretty much a Top1 vs Top2 match-up. Sure, Navi haven’t been performing well recently but we all know Navi online and the Navi on lan, they always turn up on lan and can quite literally beat anyone but Fnatic. I think that even though this is a BO1, Fnatic will most likely take it. The only mistakes Fnatic can make here is get Mirage or Train as a map, if that’s the case then Navi might be able to upset but nowadays, Mirage is Fnatic’s insta-ban so I highly doubt this happening. Fnatic should win this one, they are simply the better team.

Below 75% for Fnatic = Medium (10%) on Fnatic

Above 75% for Fnatic = Skip

My odds for this match: Fnatic 70:30 Na’Vi

Navi only with a mere 20% win rate against fnatic does not look good for them, even if this is a BO1, a place where upsets are ripe. This basically means, if you go by past history, the real chance for Navi in this game, is even lower than the already low 24% odds they currently have. This is pretty crazy. Their play style just does not match up against fnatic at all, who always seem to do enough to win their games against the CIS side. The other problem for Navi is the map pool. They really don’t have a good chance on the majority of maps, except Overpass, Train, Mirage, and maybe Cobble, and even on these maps, their odds of winning are 50 at best. They also cannot play Cache, so expect to see that removed instantly. This could very well end up on Overpass or a map like that, and it could be a close game, but with Navi having taken the month off, I expect fnatic to win this.

My odds for this match: Fnatic 65:35 Na’Vi

Conclusion

So historically this match up has been a bit one sided, in favor of Fnatic that is, I mean at times obviously Fnatic have been really close, however most of the time just no cigar and they seem to get crushed by Fnatic. Don’t see why that happens, top 3 coming up against eachother here in a BO1, should in theory be upset central. Fnatic right now are looking rather scary, they are seemingly returning to their old complete dominance times where they just did not lose to any other top tier 1 team, and are like in a tier of themselves, it’s honestly scary. Probably will play a Dust2 here or a Train, not going to speculate too much on the maps however definitely not counting Na’Vi out. I do feel as if Fnatic will probably take this and are the favorites going into this one, however hey, 25% for a BO1 vs Tier 1 teams? I will take that any day. All we need to really see is Flamie and GuardiaN stepping up here, with the rest of the team to contributing too obviously, but most importantly no just huge performances from the Fnatic guys, that seems to happen everytime, may it be a JW, a Olof most likely, however they just go off and win games single handedly. Overall for me this is around 62-38 in favor of Fnatic.

Bet

Right now the odds are so skewed that you just have to go low on Na’Vi. Still a BO1 and they are notoriously known for this type of stuff. 2-3% Fnatic if they are under 68%, otherwise 2-3% Na’Vi which seems the more likely here.

My odds = 62-38 Fnatic

My risk = High

My bet = Most likely low Na’Vi, but 2-3% Fnatic if under 68%, otherwise 2-3% Na’Vi

My advice = Same as my bet.

My odds for this match: Fnatic 62:38 Na’Vi