So the first thing I’m expecting here is that Luminosity’s odds will be extremely high because people always overhype them, I already saw mousesports on 2.95~ odds on one of the bookie websites, that would be something around 31-33% on csgolounge, in that case I would obviously go with mousesports because this is a best of one after all and mousesports did great against Luminosity in the previous encounters.
I’m quite concerned about the map veto process, ideally mousesports would love to play on dust2 or cache, however we will most likely see mousesports removing inferno, train and maybe overpass, while Luminosity should remove dust2, cache and probably mirage, I think Luminosity feel more comfortable on cobblestone rather than mirage, so thats how the veto process should look like.
Knowing the map would be either mirage or cobblestone, I feel like mousesports have a good shot on taking this match, they are great on both maps and were very close to beating Luminosity last time on cobble (LG took it 16-14). This is a great match to put a small bet on the underdog, pretty much like any other match with Luminosity over 60%.
My odds for this match: Luminosity 55:45 mousesports
This is a match where you look at the veto and Mouz are quite in some trouble. Obviously online LG is looking awful, however that has always been LG, horrible online in NA and then they come to the LANs and just demolish, it’s like day and night. This is a BO1 so you can never count Mouz out, especially since they have many players who can just take over the server, obviously most commonly Niko, the god himself, however Chris and Nex on the ocassional can show up and cause trouble. I am often disappointed with Mouz as they do not show up and it is Nikosports, which just is not enough. They need Nex and Chris to come up big too to challenge LG, and kinda hope LG is slow to start. Overall, 60-40 in favor of LG here considering it is a BO1.
5% LG if below 65%, otherwise 2% Mouz
My odds = 60-40 LG
My risk = High
My bet = 5% LG if below 65%, otherwise 2% Mouz
My advice = same as my bet
My odds for this match: Luminosity 60:40 mousesports
Obviously we all know LG have been in kind of a slump lately, but honestly I think that’s just LG saving their strats for this major, I feel like they’re well prepared and are usually the gods of the BO1’s. Mousesports on the other hand have looked good online, I don’t think they’ve saved any strats, they have 2 new coaches and I’m sure either one will be the igl as NiKo can’t igl + frag, IMO he should just focus on fragging as it makes Mousesports a lot better.
Most recent H2H was on lan as well and honestly, Mousesports should have taken that one. It was on Cobblestone and Mousesports for some reason choked and lost a 2v1 post plant against FalleN to win the game, I do think that LG will take it fairly easily, they saved their strats and should come out on top this one as they are the gods of the BO1’s. Mousesports on majors is also still a thing that doesn’t impress me at all.
My odds for this match: Luminosity 75:25 mousesports
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