So the first game of the event, and thank god for the old patch or this prediction would quite possibly be really hard to call. Looking at the two teams here, it should be a good match up, one I am a little nervous about.
Starting with Envy. They have not been at the races by their own standards recently, and have suffered some poor performances. They rely on their individual skill heavily, and when they are off with their aim, they can lose matches they should win. Their last few performances were not that bad, they looked good against E-frag, and good against Dignitas in patches. The Titan and NAVI games shouldn’t really be looked at due to the extensive ddosing. The main thing that worries me about this side, is their lack of practice.
This can be highlighted more by looking at the steam profiles of the players, and I will focus more of the last time they played CS more than the hours.
Happy: last played December 7th
kennyS: last played December 7th
apEX: last played December 8th
NBK: last played December 9th
k1o: last played December 7th
So they haven’t played as a team for at least 3 days. The last event they came into they barely had any hours played and it really showed on their performances. It is frustrating to watch such a good team thinking they can role into events and win it without working on anything. The only saving grace for them is the game is a BO3, which should help them a lot, as even if they start poorly, they can come back before it’s too late.
Moving onto Liquid, and the big news for them is no EligE, with mOE as a stand-in. EligE is actually an important player for them. Him and nitr0 especially are the entry fraggers, and I am curious how they will set up now. Putting mOE in the same positions as EliGe won’t really work in my opinionl, they are completely different players. Putting adreN in them, and moving mOE to his AWP spots will take a lot of changes too.
Judging by the Liquid boys steams, they haven’t played THAT much lately. AdreN only has 37 hours in the last 2 weeks, and nitr0 didn’t play CS for 2 days. I think they are really turning up and hoping to do well, rather than expecting it.
I think if this was Liquid’s full roster, and a BO1, I would perhaps say go ICB/LOW on them, but with the odds being how they are now, a BO3, and Liquid missing an important player, I think the chances of Envy losing this to be really slim. The odds aren’t the best, and are getting worse, so I would suggest to either SKIP, or go MED on Envy, and hope they don’t pull another Fsid3 game.
My odds for this match: Liquid 25:75 EnVyUs
A list of recent matches this team has played, green indicates a win and red a loss. Blue is a draw/cancelled
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