Orgless managed to take FS down 2-1 last time and go into this game with a 1 map advantage in a BO3. I do actually have a feeling FS might be able to take this 2-0, but having beaten FS before, and only needing 1 map, and actually only being on 55% odds, this makes betting against Orgless make no sense at all. A 1 map advantage in a BO5 is not THAT much of an advantage, but in a BO3 it is a pretty big advantage.
Orgless of course fresh off their LAN final where they looked good with SKYTTEN. They do suffer a little on CT sides which worries me, but their T side looks really potent right now. FS do have a chance here to 2-0 this as they have been looking really good lately, perhaps the best they have always looked, but I can’t bet against a 1 map advantage in a BO3 at these odds. LOW on Orgless as things stand right now.
My odds for this match: Orgless 60:40 FSid3
A BO3 where Orgless will have 1 map advantage, that’s a huge advantage because for them, it’s basically a BO1, FlipSid3 will have to win 2 maps in a row. Now the thing is, FlipSid3 are perfectly capable of doing this, I wouldn’t be surprised when they do at all but it is against Orgless and Orgless recently seem on point since they replaced tabu for skytten. I’m not sure who the caller of this team was but I do think that it’s skytten now, flash, deadfox, barbarr and maeve can now all focus on fragging and that’s what they have been doing recently. They are still a tier3 / low tier2 team and FlipSid3 are still a top tier2 team so the gap overall seems quite big. There have been some H2H’s between these teams as well and I don’t think FlipSid3 managed to win a single time. The thing is that this lan has a $15,000 prizepool and so far it seems like this is too low for FlipSid3, they have been losing to some tier3 teams left and right in this league but they did manage to get in the Grand Final against Orgless now. If FlipSid3 play like they usually do which is playing as a top tier2 team, then I can see them taking 2 maps easily but if they go into this match thinking ”$15,000 is nothing” then Orgless should win this. With FlipSid3 being the underdog, I will be taking the risk and hope for FlipSid3 to play like a top tier2 team and win this ”BO3”. Let’s go with a low bet on FlipSid3
My odds for this match: Orgless 50:50 FSid3
Ok so going into this BO3, Orgless has a 1-0 advantage here, which is never good for Flipsid3. I do not think it is anything out of this world sort of advantage, not 70-30 in favor of Orgless worthy anyway. It does make it easier of course, and should put Orgless as the favorites here, however not by too much. Flipsid3 are a good team, and going head to head here without the advantage, you’d have to favor them. It would not surprise me if it was a really close game, but F3 just takes both of the remaining maps here. Flipsid3 when on form can be a really, really deadly team at times, and for me it just depends if we see Bondik and Worldedit in particular show up here, these two are instrumental to that team. Ever since Orlgess have picked up Skytten, they have seemingly looked to have improved, and should just continue improving here. They will be my favorites for this match, however not by much and only because of the advantage they have. I like the Orgless lineup, it’s just that it seems their consistency is a major issue for these guys. 55-45 in favor of Orgless.
2-3% Orgless if below 60%, otherwise 2-3% F3
My odds = 55-45 Orgless
My risk = High
My bet = 2-3% Orgless if below 60%, otherwise 2-3% F3
My advice = Same as my bet
My odds for this match: Orgless 55:45 FSid3
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