I make it my life goal to watch Winterfox play whenever they do, it’s simply that I am quite amazed by the team, in a both good and bad way to be quite honest. On paper Winterfox has good players, they should be coming out of this one quite easily to be honest, especially since it is a BO3. They have experienced players, they have players with great skill, such as Desi especially, guy can be nuts when he is really feeling it – However the team just simply does not work most of the time, which is really disappointing. Thing with Winterfox is, never apply logic to them, ever. There is always that saying ”But it’s Winterfox”. These guys win when they shouldn’t, and lose when they shouldn’t, it’s strange. They tend to do quite well vs top NA teams, while absolutely suck vs lesser teams. The problem with Winterfox is not necessarily their individual skill, it is just the plays they make, I have never, and I mean it, seen a team lose more high advantage situations, such as 4v2’s, afterplants, 1v3’s and what not than Winterfox – Every single time they are in a high advantage situation, you just know it will go down bad.
Now, I do have to give props to them however. They have been working hard, or well I would like to believe so, they all live in a team house I believe, or at least practice there and have been a lot recently, and the results are showing, I can definitely see improvements, and as long as they keep practicing, hopefully something should come out of it. Another thing however – Winterfox attended this LAN two days ago, and Anger got so happy they actually beat somebody, he fell on the stairs and twisted his ankle. Noooow, I have no idea if it’s serious, he didn’t update us, however something to keep in mind. I mean he is playing, so how bad can it be right?
Now I do not have too much information on Obey, however I did watch them play versus Winterfox very recently, on LAN too. I actually had a maxbet on Winterfox on this match, and boy oh boy did I regret my life decisions many times during that BO3, To be honest, I deserved to lose it too, went to 3rd map after close two previous maps, and Winterfox somehow closed it out 16:14, I remember it came down to a 1v1 clutch. One specific player that stood out to me on that day, the most out of both teams actually was DSR, their AWP’er. The amount of clutches he won with the AWP, and the amount of important frags, or opening frags he had was unreal, he was basically dominating Winterfox, especially on the 3rd map – So keep your eyes on him. This does put us in a hard position however, did Obey simply perform well due to DSR’s crazy antics, or will they perform on the same level here? time will only tell, however I guess that they will be subpar, at least as long as the normal Winterfox show up today.
Honestly, I do believe that in this BO3, Winterfox will close it out, and probably rather comfortably however I just do not want to put that risk onto Winterfox, it is just not worth it. It might sound mean, but at times these guys play really stupidly, and I am not saying this because I am salty I lost a bet or something, no, they they haven’t lost me anything big at all, and won me more due to people underestimating them, however seriously, they are not your go to, number 1 reliable team NA. The odds are bad, and are probably going to get even worse as the time until the start of the match gets closer, I just don’t feel safe maxing here, and that will most likely end up being the only way I can make some sort of a profit here. Obey does not have many matches under their belt, they have a few scrims and even those are not the most impressive, however once again, scrims. I do feel like it was a once off performance versus Winterfox, DSR really did carry hard that day, however we can’t know for sure, and this is not a risk I am willing to take, nor recommend.
Very simple here, ready for it? We are all going to skip this together. Like I mentioned above, Winterfox is not the team you want to apply logic to, I don’t doubt they might demolish Obey here, however I am not confident nor ready to take that risk. Better safe than sorry at the end of the day.
My odds = 75:25 Winterfox
My risk = Medium
My Bet = Skip
My advice = Skip
My odds for this match: WinterFox 75:25 Obey
Winterfox currently are looking on fire. After their successful bootcamp they managed to upset multiple teams, TSM, OpTic and they were extremely close vs GAcademy but sadly GAcademy ran away with it, this was for the MLG Columbus qualifier. Winterfox are improving, they’re becoming better and better and especially flowsicK is starting to shine. He found his role and is just fragging madly. I really like how Winterfox improved so much in such a short amount of time.
The thing with Obey is, they’re a brand new team. dsr, ape and no_one are coming from Nexus and they have played together for a while. Brehze and Slemmy are new on this roster. I can really see a lot of potential from this line-up, Brehze, dsr and ape are 3 mad fraggers. dsr is nuts with the awp and Slemmy is a really decent igl. I can see this team becoming ”big”. Comparable with Winterfox / Enemy / GAcademy. But this team simply needs more practise before they want to compete with Winterfox / Enemy etc..
I simply can’t see Winterfox losing this. They are on fire and the last H2H match was at minor. The Obey guys played out of their minds and should have won the BO3 but didn’t. This is online and I gotta give Winterfox the upper hand here. The main problem here is; the league. RGN Winter Classic, a lot of upsets happen here and I wouldn’t ever advice anyone to go big on an overdog here.
The smartest thing is to simply skip this one. Although, there’s some people who really want to bet, when the odds stay below 80% then you might be dropping a medium bet on Winterfox and see if they’ll be bringing their A game. If the odds get over 80%, then make sure you SKIP as I don’t see this being worth it.
My odds for this match: WinterFox 80:20 Obey
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