Posted 2nd February 2017 By: para
Back in October Pinnacle ran a test to work out which Betting strategies offer the best returns over 500 bets. The idea was simple, taking the same 500 bets with a 55% win rate, what was the total profit at the end if you’d started out with $1000.
They tested this against five of the most commonly used betting strategies in sports betting… All In, Fixed Stakes, Martingale, Proportional and Fibonacci.
I’ve heard most of these strategies mentioned many times from working around Tipify. You’ll probably be familiar with them too…
‘All in’ is the strategy purportedly adopted by anyone in a chat log or forum, you take your entire betting bankroll and put it all on a bet. It’s highly unlikely that anyone actually follows this as a ‘strategy’, as it’s clear to see the major drawback is it only takes one wrong bet, before you’re back at zero.
‘Fixed Stakes’ this is only for the reserved, controlled and patient bettor, it’s the least exciting and doesn’t make the most returns but it provides consistent progression when you’re winning and makes sure the fall is slow if you’re having a losing streak.
‘Proportional’ is how most CS:GO bettors would bet in the days of CSGOLounge and the method of choice our predictors will advise you on. Take the total value of your inventory, then take a percentage of that for your stake. When you’re winning the stakes get larger, when you’re losing they get smaller. This is one of the safest ways to bet to keep you longer in the game and maximise your returns.
‘Martingale’ get’s mentioned by users in forums as ‘the ultimate way to get back losses’. The concept is simple, after you lose a $10, next time bet $20. I’d expect that this strategy probably has a large appeal with gamers or gamblers, after all, why wait to get your losses back slowly, when you can do it in one hit? It’s true, if you’re successful on that next bet you’ll be back up, but what if you don’t win that next bet? Martingale goes completely against our own betting guide, chasing back your losses is never a good idea, you’ll quickly lose everything without luck on your side.
‘Fibonacci’ I’ve not seen this mentioned around esports, but the approach is similar to Martingale but with a slower descent on your losses.
The original article is an interesting read as it goes a long way to dispel a lot of tactics and strategies you’ll hear users mention around eSport betting. Give it a read and you’ll quickly start to see the strategies at their best and worst. Ultimately, Proportional and Fixed stakes turn out to be the only strategy that can even get close to the 500 bets marker.
On the 2nd bet, ‘All in’ lost everything.
Around the 80 bets mark Martingale and Fibonacci drop out in the space of an 11 bet losing streak.
By the 300 bet marker, fixed stakes and proportional bankrolls are even on around $3,000. At this point the fixed stakes is still betting with $100 stakes, whereas the proportional bet stakes are $300 (10% of $3,000).
With the final 200 bets, a consistent winning streak see’s the proportional strategy fly off on a glory run to $18,000. Whilst fixed bets brought in just over $6,000.
Ultimately proportional hit the biggest return. But, one of the best strategies to sit above all of this is to only bet what you’re comfortable with, proportional is the best strategy at dealing with a loss, since it’s almost impossible to wipe out your whole bankroll, but fixed stakes ensures you’re never betting more than your comfortable with losing.
Overall, I’d say the best approach is to follow proportional stakes, but if you’re winning, and the stakes start getting high, stay in your comfort zone and limit your stake.
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