Posted 21st February 2018 By: Kyle-Tipify Staff
London Spitfire ended Stage 1 of the Overwatch League as the first league champion. More so, OWL does not end here. In fact, it’s only the beginning. Spitfire won $100,000 in the win and are looking to improve their 7-3 win-loss record.
OWL did base its league structure off a traditional sports league, but one of the few things it differs from a usual league is that their season is split into four stages—each with playoffs. Once the season ends, each team’s record matters and defines the league playoffs.
Tomorrow, Stage 2 of the Overwatch League opens and it’s going to be a lot different compared to Stage 1. The most recent patch, the nerf to Mercy, different map list, and roster changes will alter predictions and odds when it comes to OWL. Let’s find out the new things we have to watch out for.
Obviously, you know that Mercy received a huge nerf this year, balancing her Resurrection skill that removed her ability to have an extra charge of the skill and reduced the power of Valkyrie. This patch only hits the servers of the League starting at Stage 2, and the Mercy nerf did present a big effect on the amateur games of Overwatch. Apparently, Mercy had dropped its usage rate in matches and most likely, the hero is less likely to see playing time at the pro level. This is the end of the Mercy meta. Some might miss her while some may not.
One huge attraction of esports is that it will be ever-changing with balance patches and the like. With this, the map pool used in the league will also change, depending on the meta. This time, for Stage 2, the map pool will have King’s Row, Hollywood, Hanamura, Nepal, Route 66, and Gibraltar. a This is huge blow for the playing teams because all of their strategies and playbooks from Stage 1 will have to be revisited again as it might not coincide with the Stage 2 meta.
The three teams that sit at the bottom of the league standings are the ones who made the most roster moves. Dallas Fuel, Shanghai Dragons, and Florida Mayhem made big pickups and changed their lineup, in hopes to make their run at a better spot in the standings. Here are the moves that they made.
Shanghai Dragons added Korean players, to a Chinese dominant team, and most notably, the first female Overwatch League player, Geguri. Hopefully, visa issues won’t prevent the recent additions to enter the US and keep them from playing in the league.
Florida Mayhem also signed Korean players to their lineup, including Korea’s best hitscan player, Sayaplayer, main tank aWesomeGuy, and flex tank Zappis. Can Florida become a threat in the league and end their tilt with the new players?
Lastly, Fuel nabbed the best Western player, aKm and secured a trade for flex DPS player, Rascal. It seems like Dallas is going for a different strategy, which is perfect entering a new meta, mostly focusing on tanks and supports instead.
Stage 1 may change and be different from Stage 2, but it won’t affect betting. Betting on OWL is still the same like it has been before. Here are the first-day matches along with their odds.
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When you first start out you’ll be tempted to try to bet as frequently as possible, don’t. Wait for matches with good odds where you or the predictors know the teams. Never force yourself to bet, bet on matches that you are confident in. You may go days or weeks without placing a bet, you’re not in a rush, wait for bets you are comfortable and confident in and profit should follow.
If there’s any uncertainty, don’t place a bet. Save your skins for another day. There will be plenty of other matches that you can bet on.
Betting is always risky, that’s unavoidable. But staying inside a ‘safe zone’ will help cover you off from some really silly bets. When starting out with a low inventory, large bets placed on matches with 80%+ odds aren’t going to return much in general (on lounge, even less due to the inconsistent returns) but you’re still risking a large amount of your inventory for very little.
Equally, odds below 30% sound very, very attractive with huge returns possible. But if you don’t know the teams or all the details, it’s very possible the team doesn’t stand any chance. If you think there might be a chance, reduce the size of the stake or consider an ICB.
Always bet with a percentage of your inventory. Think, what happens if you lose an ‘All in’ bet, do you stop betting for the rest of your life, or just get your wallet out and go again? You may think there’s no risk, however there is always risk. If you’re placing a high bet, stick to an absolute maximum of 20% of your betting inventory.
Always leave enough to bet another day.
If you’re feeling angry or frustrated, your judgement get’s very cloudy. You’ll make a stupid bet and lose. If you just lost a big bet or are on a losing streak, instead of trying to force a bet, you should take a step back, calm down and just take a break, come back refreshed with a fresh mindset.
Betting blind is a purely relying on luck, if the underdog odds are 30%, that definitely doesn’t mean the team has a 30% chance of winning. It just means 30% of the betting community chose that team. A late roster change could mean there’s zero chance for the team to win. Check in with our predictions to help give you some more background on the game.
Use the lounge odds tracker to predict the final odds as the start of the match get’s closer. If the odds are increasing/decreasing for the team you intend to bet on the return may not outweigh the risk anymore. A huge significant switch of odds at the last moment may mean that something shady is going on, mostly in very low tier games, or a sudden announcement, E.g standin may have occurred.
Bookies will put up their odds based on their own expectations, as the bets start coming in they'll tweak the odds to ensure it's still profitable for them. That early stage is key to getting an edge on the bookies.
As soon as you feel like you have to bet again to recoup loses, you’ll feel compelled to make bigger bets with bigger risks. This often starts an endless cycle driving your losses further and further. Instead, after a big loss, take a day off from betting (or a week if was really big). .Keep to the proper bet sizing based on the risk of the match no matter what. You are not in a race to win it back, just take it easy.
Do not blindly follow betting site odds and think that they are correct to the true odds. If a betting site has ‘Team A’ as a heavy favorite, it does not always mean that it’s an easy win for ‘Team A’.
SK beat Na’Vi… Na’Vi beat E-Frag. That means SK can beat E-Frag now, right? No.
There are many factors which contribute to the team winning a match, these factors such as player performance, map selection, strategy and tactics which may not apply to other teams.